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Why did the photovoltaic industry not rise when the ChiNext rose
China's rapid rise as a solar powerhouse fuels global growth but exposes deep cracks — overcapacity, trade tensions and the limits of state-driven industrial policy, says EAI deputy director Chen Gang. . China's solar industry started as an export-oriented sector driven primarily by local government investments in manufacturing capacity. Solar panels at the Baofeng Agriculture-Photovoltaic Integration Industrial Base near Yinchuan. . Breaking news from Beijing is reshaping the global solar market. On January 9, 2026, China announced it will eliminate VAT export rebates for solar products effective April 1, 2026. China accounts for 80 per cent of solar module production capacity after years of subsidies. . This paper reviews the transformative shifts within China's photovoltaic (PV) industry against the backdrop of a global pivot from fossil fuels to renewable energies, a transition underscored by the pressing demands of climate change mitigation. Recently published third quarter reports showed that many of the largest players are posting significant losses as they continue to compete in a vicious price war. In its most recent earnings report, JinkoSolar. .
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PV panel prices expected to rise
Wood Mackenzie's October 2025 analysis confirms that PV module prices are jumping approximately 9% in Q4 2025, with further increases expected through 2026. It represents a structural market correction that will reshape solar procurement strategies. . The global solar module industry is expected to regain a sustainable balance in the next six months, Yana Hryshko, head of Solar Supply Chain Research for Wood Mackenzie, told pv magazine. She explains why solar module prices may increase soon, suggesting that Tier 1 modules prices could reach. . The impact is already being felt across the market, with experts forecasting a 10–15% increase in panel prices, tightening supply chains and triggering pre-buying worldwide. China's VAT rebate reduction, polysilicon consolidation, and lower factory utilization are reshaping the market. To protect margins, lock in pricing early, diversify suppliers, and adopt high-efficiency HPBC and ABC modules. Prices will still be low, just not as low as they were late last year.
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